Fachvorträge des Lehrstuhlteams

  • 08/2024: Johannes Frank, Multi-Task Learning for Macroeconomic Forecasting, 26th International Conference on Computational Statistics (COMPSTAT 2024), Giessen.
  • 07/2024: Jonas Dovern, Multi-Task Learning for Macroeconomic Nowcasting, VWL-Seminar, Universität Augsburg.
  • 07/2024: Jonas Dovern, Multi-Task Learning for Macroeconomic Nowcasting, Statistisch-Ökonometrisches Seminar, Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel.
  • 07/2024: Johannes Frank, Multi-Task Learning for Macroeconomic Nowcasting, 44th International Symposium on Forecasting, Dijon.
  • 06/2024: Johannes Frank, Multi-Task Learning for Macroeconomic Nowcasting, 6th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2024), Valencia.

  • 09/2023: Jonas Dovern, Shocks of Experience and Expectation? How Do Shifting Expectations Affect Economic Dynamics – and Vice Versa? Schlusskonferenz 2023 des DFG-SPP 1859.
  • 09/2023: Lena Müller, Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB’s executive board, Macro Colloquium, U.C. Berkeley, Berkeley, USA
  •  07/2023: Lena Müller, Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany,  Statistik Tage Bamberg|Fürth, Germany
  • 04/2023: Alexander Glas, Households‘ probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes, Workshop on Macroeconomics and International Finance, ifo Dresden.
  • 03/2023: Johannes Frank, Forecasting Realized Volatility in Turbulent Times using Temporal Fusion Transformers, 16th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, Ruhr-Universität Bochum.
  • 02/2023: Jonas Dovern, Local Information and Firm Expectations about Aggregates, TU Dortmund.
  • 01/2023: Lena Müller, Local Information and Firm Expectations about Aggregates,  4th BGPE Research Workshop, Augsburg, Germany

  • 12/2022: Alexander Glas, Testing for differences in survey-based density forecasts: A compositional data approach, International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, King’s College London.
  • 09/2022: Jonas Dovern, Local information and firm expectations about aggregates, University College Dublin, School of Economics.
  • 09/2022: Jonas Dovern, Testing for differences in survey-based density forecasts: A compositional data approach, VfS Jahrestagung 2022, Basel
  • 09/2022: Alexander Glas, Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: disagreement, revisions and errors, VfS Jahrestagung 2022, Basel
  • 07/2022: Alexander Glas, Testing for differences in survey-based density forecasts: A compositional data approach, CES Research Seminar, Europäische Zentralbank (online)
  • 06/2022: Alexander Glas, Testing for differences in survey-based density forecasts: A compositional data approach, Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics, King’s College London
  • 06/2022: Jonas Dovern, Testing for differences in survey-based density forecasts: A compositional data approach, Workshop on Survey Data and Probabilistic Expectations, Universität Heidelberg
  • 05/2022: Lena Müller, Local information and firm expectations about aggregates, 1st Bavarian Macro Day, Universität Regensburg
  • 03/2022: Lena Müller, Local information and firm expectations about aggregate growth, 15th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics

  • 09/2021: Jonas Dovern, Uncertainty, Expectation Dispersion, and the Reaction to News, VfS Jahrestagung 2021 (online)
  • 09/2021: Alexander Glas, Conditional Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors, 35th CIRET Conference on Economic Tendency Surveys, Posen (online)
  • 09/2021: Lena Müller, Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board, VfS Jahrestagung (online)
  • 07/2021: Jonas Dovern, Uncertainty, Expectation Dispersion, and the Reaction to News, 3rd Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop, Universität Bamberg (online)
  • 06/2021: Lena Sophia Müller, Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board, The 41st International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) (online)
  • 06/2021: Lena Sophia Müller, How do firms form expectations of aggregate growth? Evidence from a large-scale business survey in Germany, 25th Spring Meeting of Young Economists (SMYE), Universität Bologna (online)
  • 05/2021: Jonas Dovern, Uncertainty, Expectation Dispersion, and the Reaction to News, 23nd Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington D.C. (online)
  • 02/2021: Jonas Dovern, Uncertainty, Expectation Dispersion, and the Reaction to News, 11th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (online)

  • 12/2020: Daniel Perico Ortiz, Measuring the impact of President Trump’s tweets on economic uncertainty: A narrative approach, 13th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (online)
  • 12/2020: Daniel Perico Ortiz, Measuring the impact of President Trump’s tweets on economic uncertainty: A narrative approach,  14th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (online)
  • 10/2020: Jonas Dovern, Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Franco-German Fiscal Policy Seminar, Bundesministerium der Finanzen (online)
  • 10/2020: Alexander Glas, External Assumptions and Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors, The 41st International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF), Rio de Janeiro (online)
  • 10/2020: Alexander Glas, External Assumptions and Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors, Vienna Workshop on Economic Forecasting, Wien (online)
  • 10/2020: Alexander Glas, External Assumptions and Macroeconomic Forecasts: Disagreement, Revisions and Forecast Errors, IWH-CIREW-GW Macroeconometric Workshop on Forecasting and Uncertainty, Halle (online)
  • 09/2020: Jonas Dovern, Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households, VfS Jahrestagung (online)
  • 03/2020: Lena Sophia Müller, How Do Firms From Expectations of Aggregate Growth?, Konferenz für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsdaten, Berlin

  • 10/2019: Alexander Glas, Effects of External Assumptions and Forecast Errors in the Euro Area, IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop on Micro Data and Macro Questions, Halle
  • 09/2019: Jonas Dovern, Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households, Joint Conference on Household Expectations of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Banque de France, Frankfurt.
  • 09/2019: Jonas Dovern, How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey in Germany, VfS Jahrestagung, Leipzig
  • 09/2019: Alexander Glas, Information Channels of Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations, Deutsche Bundesbank and Banque de France: Joint Conference on Household Expectations, Frankfurt
  • 09/2019: Alexander Glas Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik (VfS), Leipzig
  • 08/2019: Laura Kölbl, Topic Word Selection for Topics Modeled with Latent Dirichlet Allocation, ISSAT International Conference on Data Scienc eand Intelligent Systems, Las Vegas
  • 06/2019: Jonas Dovern, How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey in Germany, FU Berlin, Research Seminar in Economics
  • 06/2019: Jonas Dovern, How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey in Germany, Universität Bamberg, Second Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop
  • 02/2019: Alexander Glas Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, 12th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, Bochum

  • 12/2018: Jonas Dovern, How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey in Germany, Universität Bayreuth, VWL-Forschungsseminar
  • 12/2018: Jonas Dovern, How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey in Germany, Macroeconomics and Survey Data Conference at the ifo Institute, München
  • 12/2018: Alexander Glas, Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop on Uncertainty, Expectations and Macroeconomic Modelling, Halle
  • 09/2018: Alexander Glas, Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik (VfS), Freiburg
  • 08/2018: Jonas Dovern, Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area, Annual Congress of the EEA, Köln
  • 08/2018: Alexander Glas, Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, 71st European Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESEM), Köln
  • 02/2018: Jonas Dovern, Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output, Macro Seminar ifo Institute, München
  • 02/2018: Alexander Glas, Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, 11th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, Essen
  • 01/2018: Jonas Dovern, Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area, LMU München

  • 11/2017: Jonas Dovern, Recessions and Unstable Estimates of Potential Output, Universität Graz, Research Seminar
  • 10/2017: Jonas Dovern, The Effects of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants, VfS Jahrestagung, Wien
  • 03/2017: Jonas Dovern, The Effects of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants, University of Birmingham, Research Seminar
  • 01/2017: Rende, J.: partialCI: An R Package for the Analysis of Partially Cointegrated Time Series, 20.05.2017, Chicago (v01-2017)

  • 12/2016: Jonas Dovern, Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts, Universität Maastricht, Workshop on Advances in Quantitative Economics II
  • 12/2016: Jonas Dovern, Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts, CFE-CMStatistics in London
  • 09/2016: Alexander Glas, Inflation Uncertainty, Disagreement and Monetary Policy – Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik (VfS), Augsburg
  • 10/2016: Jonas Dovern, Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts, VfS Jahrestagung in Augsburg
  • 09/2017: Alexander Glas, Overconfidence versus Rounding in Survey-Based Density Forecasts, IWH/INFER Workshop on Challenges and Implications of Inflationary Dynamics, Halle
  • 08/2016: Alexander Glas, Inflation Uncertainty, Disagreement and Monetary Policy – Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, 69th European Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESEM), Genf
  • 06/2016: Alexander Glas, Inflation Uncertainty, Disagreement and Monetary Policy – Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, The 36th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF), Santander
  • 06/2016: Alexander Glas, Infrastructure and Trade: A Gravity Analysis for Major Trade Categories Using a New Index of Infrastructure, Annual Congress of the Research Group on Development Economics of the German Economic Association, Heidelberg
  • 05/2016: Jonas Dovern, Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts, University of Warwick, Research Seminar
  • 02/2016: Jonas Dovern, Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area Based on SPF Data, FU Berlin, Research Seminar

  • 10/2015: Alexander Glas, Inflation Uncertainty, Disagreement and Monetary Policy – Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, CIRET/KOF/RIED WSE Workshop with a Special Focus on Economic Cycles and Uncertainty, Warschau
  • 08/2015: Alexander Glas, Inflation Uncertainty, Disagreement and Monetary Policy – Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik (VfS), Mannheim

  • 06/2014: Alexander Glas, Inflation Uncertainty Before and After the Crisis – Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Workshop Uncertainty and Probabilistic Forecasting During the Financial and Economic Crisis, Heidelberg

  • 1/2013: Tinkl, F.: M-estimators for augmented GARCH(1,1) processes, 19.03.2013, Freiburg (v01-2013)

  • 1/2012: Klein, I.: Schiefe für geordnet-kategoriale Variablen, 03.06.2012, Überlingen am Ried (v01-2012)
  • 2/2012: Klein, I.;  Nullhypothesis Significance Testing (NHST), Effektgrößen, Deskriptive Verteilungsfunktionen, Bayes-Faktoren, 03.07.2012, Universität Würzburg (v02-2012)
  • 3/2012: Ardelean, V. und Tinkl, F.: Modelling financial data with stochastic processes, 01.08.2012, Brüssel (v03-2012)